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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd